Africa in Economic Crisis by John Ravenhill (eds.)

By John Ravenhill (eds.)

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To attempt to distinguish between the Bank's examination of the situation for Africa as a whole and the fact that policy-making occurs at the individual country level (see Chapter 6) is primarily to play with words. No suggestion appears in the Bank's Agenda that the prescribed policies for export agriculture should be followed selectively or that success in their pursuit will be dependent on other countries failing to implement the Bank's advice . The second argument has somewhat more validity.

World Development Report 1982 (New York : Oxford University Press, 1982). 10. Half of this number are projected to remain underemployed. however. ECA and Africa's Development 1983-2008 p. 59; other data are from World Bank, Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Agenda for Action (Washington. DC: World Bank . 1981). At current rates of population growth. the absolute size of Afr ica's agricultural labour force is projected to increase throughout the next century. World Bank . World Development Report 1984 (New York : Oxford Univers ity Press, 1984)p.

Although it did comment that the majority of profitable industrial investment opportunities in Africa in the near future would lie in this sector, it also asserted (p. 93) that the first stage of import substitution had nearly been exhausted in countries such as Kenya, the Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, and for them : 'few new import substitution opportunities exist based on the internal market'. Since, as the ECA notes, as much as 35-45 per cent of the consumer goods market in Africa is satisfied from imports, this pessimism on lSI appears premature, to say the least.

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